War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with major political parties dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a coup, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the polls under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a military representative stated at a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "the path to democracy".